FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

found 2025 › Jun › 15 (Sun) @ 14:05 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent. Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also be on hold at the …

YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

found 2025 › Jun › 11 (Wed) @ 13:50 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined and i…

CPI Preview

found 2025 › Jun › 10 (Tue) @ 18:30 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

The Consumer Price Index for May is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.5% year-over…

Personal Income increased 0.8% in April; Spending increased 0.2%

found 2025 › May › 30 (Fri) @ 14:10 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025

Personal income increased $210.1 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in April, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Ec…

PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases to 4.2% YoY in April

found 2025 › May › 30 (Fri) @ 14:10 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through April 2025.

CPI Shelter was up 4.0% year-over-year in April, un…

Friday: Personal Income and Outlays

found 2025 › May › 30 (Fri) @ 00:45 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in person…

Q1 GDP Growth Revised up to -0.2% Annual Rate

found 2025 › May › 29 (Thu) @ 13:30 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), 1st Quarter 2025

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the f…

Schedule for Week of May 25, 2025

found 2025 › May › 24 (Sat) @ 14:05 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

The key reports this week are the second estimate of Q1 GDP, March Case-Shiller house prices, and Personal Income and Outlays for April.

For manufacturing, the May Richmond and Dallas Fed manufactur…

Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE

found 2025 › May › 21 (Wed) @ 00:35 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

During the early stages of the pandemic, energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE hit an all-time low of 3.3% of PCE. Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE increased to 2018 levels by the end …

YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

found 2025 › May › 13 (Tue) @ 13:40 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined and i…