Recession Watch Metrics

found 2025 › May › 05 (Mon) @ 18:50 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on r…

Heavy Truck Sales Mostly Unchanged YoY in April

found 2025 › May › 02 (Fri) @ 19:02 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 505 thousand.

Heavy truck sales really collap…

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March and a Look Ahead to April Sales

found 2025 › Apr › 28 (Mon) @ 16:25 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March and a Look Ahead to April Sales

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) r…

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY

found 2025 › Apr › 24 (Thu) @ 14:55 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Receded 5.9% in March

Existing-home sales descended in March, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slid in all four major U.S. regions. Year-over…

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Existing Home Sales

found 2025 › Apr › 24 (Thu) @ 01:45 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Initial claims were at…

April Vehicle Forecast: Sales at 17.4 million SAAR, Up 8.6% YoY

found 2025 › Apr › 23 (Wed) @ 23:20 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

From WardsAuto: Pre-Tariff U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge Continues in April, Sapping Dealer Inventory (pay content). Brief excerpt:

If the forecast holds firm, inventory will fall below the year-ago…

New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March

found 2025 › Apr › 23 (Wed) @ 15:25 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 724 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down, combined.

Sales of new single-family …

Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March

found 2025 › Apr › 23 (Wed) @ 15:25 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March

Brief excerpt:

The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally ad…

Wednesday: New Home Sales, Architecture Billings Index, Beige Book

found 2025 › Apr › 23 (Wed) @ 01:25 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purc…

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March

found 2025 › Apr › 21 (Mon) @ 20:15 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National As…