Recession Watch Metrics

found 2025 › May › 05 (Mon) @ 18:50 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on r…

ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool

found 2025 › May › 05 (Mon) @ 16:20 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool

Brief excerpt:

House Price Growth Continues to Slow

Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to t…

FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

found 2025 › May › 04 (Sun) @ 13:45 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent. Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also be on hold at the …

Heavy Truck Sales Mostly Unchanged YoY in April

found 2025 › May › 02 (Fri) @ 19:02 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 505 thousand.

Heavy truck sales really collap…

Freddie Mac House Price Index Mostly Unchanged in March; Up 3.0% Year-over-year

found 2025 › Apr › 30 (Wed) @ 17:40 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Mostly Unchanged in March; Up 3.0% Year-over-year

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Pr…

NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 6.1% in March; Down 0.6% YoY

found 2025 › Apr › 30 (Wed) @ 15:10 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Jumped 6.1% in March

Pending home sales increased 6.1% in March – the greatest month-to-month increase since December 2023 (+7.0%) – according to the National Associa…

Personal Income increased 0.5% in March; Spending increased 0.7%

found 2025 › Apr › 30 (Wed) @ 15:10 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March:

Personal income increased $116.8 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates released today by the U.S…

Wednesday: GDP, Personal Income and Outlays, Pending Home Sales

found 2025 › Apr › 30 (Wed) @ 00:35 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purc…

Las Vegas in March: Visitor Traffic Down 7.8% YoY; Convention Traffic Up 10.2% YoY

found 2025 › Apr › 29 (Tue) @ 21:20 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: March 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics

With a slightly less‐packed event calendar and as‐yet unclear impacts of evolving federal policies rippling thru intern…

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Job Openings

found 2025 › Apr › 29 (Tue) @ 00:55 UTC

a story from Calculated Risk › Calculated Risk

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week Slightly Lower

Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest levels since April 7th. The average lender remained at those sam…